R Krishna Das
The thumping victory of Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal is seen as a humiliating defeat of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as it had put best resources at its command to oust Mamata Banerjee from power. The party however failed miserably!
BJP should now see the defeat as an opportunity to prepare and contest the election next time in the state with more diligence and a new strategy. Before that, it however had to realize what went wrong that facilitated the party to face a big defeat despite confidence that it would change the political landscape of West Bengal.
The BJP had no local face or leader. The entire campaign was basically anti-Mamata Banerjee that literally went negative. By cleverly making this election “outsider” vs. Banglar Maya (daughter of Bengal), Mamata Banerjee portrayed herself as a target of outsiders, giving her a fraction of the women’s vote and “Bengali pride” vote. It was the same regional pride (asmita) that repeatedly helped Narendra Modi retain power in Gujarat. Mamata had no challenge except for BJP’s resources and national leaders.
In the elections, the issues and messages matter much more. The BJP had no clear agenda for Bengal apart from empty slogans like “Sonar Bangla”, etc. While Mamata Banerjee specifically fixed her welfare schemes to benefit women, such as Modi’s Ujjwala, Jan Dhan , Etc. at the national level. The BJP failed to address the issues related to women and sway the silent voters.
The most important aspect of the BJP defeat was that it failed to form the equation with its potential voters. The party failed to ensure Hindu votes integration even as the TMC managed to consolidate the minority vote. This is the reason why the Congress and the Left Parties were completely wiped out from the state’s political scene. The minority vote went only to TMC, as Muslims voted cleverly, while urban Hindus did not vote. Hindu votes were divided that directly benefited the TMC.
In contrast, Himanta Biswa Sarma led to a large unification of Assamese and Bengali Hindu votes in upper and lower Assam, in addition to leftist sub-alternative castes and groups. The BJP needs to ask itself how it failed in West Bengal where there was no anti-incumbency for it while Sarma managed to overcome that hurdle and also the emergence of Badruddin Ajmal as the new power center in the state.
BJP strategists need to consider why this did not happen in West Bengal. The BJP has to clarify its options: it can go hard with its Hindu agenda making a respectable deal with the minorities. Sarma’s victory explains why one can’t ride two horses with one ass. The party can have Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, but Sabka Vishwas has to be preceded by at least the vishwas of its core voters. This BJP failed to do in West Bengal.
Perhaps the BJP failed to impress its core cadre as it preferred to bet on the people from the tollywood and the leaders switched over from different outfits.
The BJP should not be disappointed with the verdict. For, it would now be a major opposition party in the state that would provide an opportunity to build its cadre and local leadership besides going with its ideology among the masses. The only worry that BJP should now have would be to protect its cadre and leaders especially those who came from TMC. For, Mamata supporters would try to target them.
The BJP has much to do in West Bengal. It has to create a leader, a strong Hindu narrative and a strong cadre base.
