Team News Riveting
Beijing, December 20
China is facing the world’s largest COVID surge of the pandemic with the public health officials estimating that 800 million (80 crore) people could be infected with the virus over the next few months.
Health experts predict that a half million (50 lakh) people could die, possibly more, in the fresh surge. The virus is spreading faster in China than it’s spread ever before anywhere during the pandemic, experts said, adding that it also looks to be especially contagious in the Chinese population.
To estimate a virus’s transmissibility, scientists often use a parameter called the reproductive number, or R number. Basically, the R number tells on average how many people one sick person infects. At the beginning of the COVID pandemic, in early 2020, the R number was about 2 or 3. It means each person spreads the virus to 2 to 3 people on average.
During the omicron surge in the U.S. last winter, the R number had jumped up to about 10 or 11, experts said. Scientists at the China National Health Commission estimate the R number is currently a whopping 16 in China during this surge. “This is a really high level of transmissibility,” experts said.
On top of that, the virus appears to be spreading faster in China than omicron spread in surges elsewhere. In China, the doubling time is like hours.
Experts said even if it slowed down a bit, it would still be doubling fast and the hospitals would come under pressure possibly by the end of this month. China’s abrupt end to Covid Zero is sparking concerns about overloaded hospitals and the possibility of another variant mutating from the surge in cases.
Meanwhile, demand had started coming in that India should reimpose border controls on people travelling from China or via China. The Covid explosion risks exporting a new wave of the pandemic through the world.
