Ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Congress stuns BJP with massive win in Karnataka
R Krishna Das
Even as women voters playing key role and Muslims abandoning the JD(S), Congress registered a huge victory in Karnataka today while stepping stone for 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Congress bagged 136 seats to form the government of its own in Karnataka, leaving the BJP to confine to just 65 seats. The JD(S) of H D Dewe Gowda eyeing to play the role of kingmaker in Karnataka politics was down to 19 seats, a loss of 18 seats compared to 2018 assembly elections.
Anti-incumbency, absence of Lingayat stalwart B S Yediyurappa, misgovernance, lack of Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai’s acceptance among cadres, rebels and finally a haphazard campaign that swung from issue to issue were among factors that emerged as major factor behind Congress’ stunning victory. Political analysts admitted that Yediyurappa’s presence in the scene would have safeguarded BJP’s Lingayat base and prevented such a drastic seat reduction.
It could be gauged by the fact that the Congress bagged 42 of the state’s 67 Lingayat seats besides the majority of SC, ST and Vokkaliga segments breaching both BJP and JD (S) bastions. The Congress managed Muslim consolidation with its “Bajrang Dal ban pledge”.
Losing Karnataka, BJP’s southern inroads have suffered a major setback. The party would need to return to the drawing board to see why its Hindutva narratives—Hijab row, Tipu Sultan controversy, Bajrangbali pitch, scrapping of Muslim reservation—failed in Karnataka. It would also need to address Congress’ newly discovered “vocal for local election campaign as seen in Karnataka and earlier in Himachal.”
The opinion polls calculated that women voters had opted for the Congress in a big way and it appeared to have had a decisive impact on the election. Also, the Muslims seemed to have abandoned the JD(S) and solidly cast their votes for the Congress. Muslims form around 12 per cent of Karnataka’s population.
The Congress did particularly well in the Hyderabad Karnataka, Mumbai Karnataka and also the Old Mysuru region which has always been seen as a JD (S) stronghold. The BJP hung on to its Coastal Karnataka stronghold.
For the BJP, the Karnataka defeat was particularly bitter because it has now lost its only stronghold in south India. However, the party could console itself with the fact that it had 26 out of state’s 28 Lok Sabha seats.
The election analysts reckon that the Narendra Modi factor is likely to play a much stronger role in the national elections. Also, the BJP appears to have held on to its vote share in the election.
