Team News Riveting
A government panel report had come out with a startling study; estimating that about 1.3 billion people in India, half of the country’s population, was likely to be infected by COVID-19 by February 2021.
Indian Institute for Technology’s Manindra Agrawal, who is a member of the government committee that provided projections, on Monday said that the surge would slow down the spread of COVID-19.
As of Monday, India had reported 7.55 million cases of COVID-19, and was only behind the United States in terms of the total infections.
After a peak in mid-September, the number of cases seemed to be dropping in the country. Currently, over 61,000 new cases are reported each day on an average.
“Our mathematical model estimates that around 30 per cent of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50 per cent by February,” Manindra Agrawal added.
The central government’s zero survey claimed that around 14 per cent of the Indian population had been infected with COVID-19 until September.
According to Agrawal, serological surveys may not be the right measure of cases due to the size of the population that they are surveying.
This is why the committee of virologists, a 10-member government appointed panel conducted a study titled “Progression of the COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Prognosis and Lockdown Impacts” which used mathematical models instead of relying on a survey.
Their model takes into account the considerable number of unreported infections.
Besides this, the committee warned that these projections could be surpassed if precautions against COVID-19 are not followed, including basic hand wash and hygiene.
According to their estimates, cases could rise by 2.6 million infections in one month if social distancing measures and facial masks are ignored.
