R Krishna Das
Politics, apart from being the art of the possible, also ensures that reckoning comes a full circle. The unfolding political developments in Bihar stand as testimony.
With Nitish Kumar severing ties with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), all eyes are now set on his future and fate of Janata Dal (United) that he leads in Bihar. His leaving the NDA led by BJP has been of least significance compared to joining hands with Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) that he deserted in 2017 to retain his Chief Minister seat.
With a fresh U-turn, Nitish Kumar has made another stunning switch for power. Instead of joining hands with the opposition, he should have preferred to go for a fresh election. By doing so, he could have covered up the allegation that he proved to be the biggest political “opportunist”.
By dumping the NDA, Nitish Kumar has probably put his political career at stake; committing the same mistake done by Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh earlier. In March 2018, Naidu pulled out Telugu Desam Party (TDP) out of the NDA despite earning a great respect in the saffron camp. In the election that followed a year later, he was trounced badly, both the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls.
A set of unprecedented U-turns and flip flops has eroded the credibility of Naidu who was once feted for his astute political strategies. Clearly, his newfound friendship with the Congress, an enemy of TDP since its inception in 1982, has not gone down well with the people of Andhra.
Soon after the elections, Chandrababu Naidu publicly admitted that leaving the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was a big mistake.
Nitish Kumar too has found new friends in Bihar. But what he or his party will gain out of it will be a keenly watched affair in Bihar politics.
Being the national party, JDU will not have a direct confrontation with Congress in the state affairs. But being a regional satrap, RJD will always play cards close to its chest while dealing with Kumar. It will take full advantage of being the single largest party in the legislative assembly, dominating the JDU that will head the government despite being number three.
Tejashwi Yadav, son of Lalu and leader of newly formed Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) backing Nitish Kumar, does not eye a big role in national politics. His interest will be in the Chief Minister’s post. Since Nitish Kumar has pulled all strings to retain the position, will he easily allow Tejashwi to occupy the space?
It could be possible only in one condition. Nitish Kumar, if projected as the joint opposition Prime Ministerial candidate for 2024 general election. But scoring over Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal or the Gandhi family will not be easy political manoeuvres for Nitish Kumar. His acceptance would be questioned as he had been supporting the BJP at a time when the opposition campaign against Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in full throttle.
BJP will now go all alone in the state politics and can look for a chance. But the two strong regional allies cannot see in the same spectrum. Even if it succeeds, it will be advantage RJD and not Nitish Kumar’s JDU that bagged just 15.39 per cent vote share in the 2020 state polls. RJD had emerged as the single largest party with 23.11 per cent vote share.
