R Krishna Das
With Fumio Kishida all set to become Japan’s next prime minister after winning the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election on Wednesday, all eyes are now set on his policy towards China.
Beijing is always keeping a close watch to understand whether the would-be prime minister follows or changes the confrontational China policy his predecessor Yoshihide Suga had been pursuing. Japan is still grappling with the COVID and domestic issues that China eyes to encash and propel the new dispensation to follow a moderate policy.
Foreign experts also believe that domestic issues rather than foreign policy will be a major focus of attention for the new leader. Containing the pandemic and restoring the economy are the two most crucial issues facing the country. Before the Upper House election due in summer 2022, Kishida needs to successfully address both the issues to ensure LDP success in the election.
China anticipates that Kishida will deal with the domestic issues rather than adopting a confrontational policy against it as Suga’s abandonment of a re-election bid is mainly due to his mishandling of the pandemic and economy. It also envisages aiding Japan under the new regime to handle both the issues. Beijing is also banking on the reports of economists that China-Japan economic cooperation and trade are likely to see robust growth in 2021.
As the second longest–serving foreign minister during the Abe premiership since World War II, Kishida is well aware of the importance of maintaining a stable relationship with China and knows he will get the benefit from a stable Japan-Chinese relationship.
But to maintain a humble relation with China, Kishida has to refrain himself from intervening in the most sensitive Taiwan issue. And before the election, Kishida made some strongly worded expressions on the issue that hurts China more. He warned that “the Taiwan Straits will be the next big problem.” After taking office, the new prime minister is expected to fulfil, if any, commitments he made during the race.
China should also not forget that as the Shinzo Abe-era foreign minister, Kishida played the most important role in formulating the China policy inclined towards the United States.
